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Messi

|< < Prev #3260 (June 17, 2026)

Title text: Commentators agree that this will probably be the last World Cup in which Messi faces serious competition.

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Explanation

In the vein of 605: Extrapolating, this comic utilizes the incorrect application of extrapolation to produce a ridiculous result. Extrapolation is a form of estimation in which existing data points are used to estimate new data points beyond the range of the existing ones. In this case, Randall has fit a few data points regarding soccer superstar Lionel Messi's average goals per game during World Cup editions to a curve using what appears to be polynomial or exponential extrapolation. It illustrates the danger of a small sample size, as the data point for "2026 (so far)" is based on only one game (the day before this comic, in his inaugural game of the 2026 World Cup, Messi scored three goals), and that data point is used to support extrapolation of a rapidly rising number of goals-per-game into the future. The data points for previous World Cups, which bounce around among various values but are all less than or equal to 1.0, are each based on more games, but still pretty small numbers, since Argentina played only between four and seven games during those World Cups.

Additionally, the extrapolation pays no attention to the typical career shape of a football player, which would generally tend to show an improvement from youth into their prime playing years, followed by a decline, which can often be quite steep, as they age out. If the trend shown were extrapolated into the 2050s, it would imply that Messi would be scoring multiple goals per second, which would be impossible in real life.^{[citation needed]}

The title text says that this World Cup is the last one in which Messi will face serious competition. This is likely true, but not in the sense implied. Rather than the supposed trend meaning that in future World Cups Messi would theoretically score hundreds of goals per game, likely eclipsing any other players scoring rate, he will likely face no opposition as this is almost certainly Messi's last World Cup, period. By apparently overlooking the fact that Messi is a only one of several players on his team, it may even be suggesting that, on his own, his ability can triumph over any other national team fielded in the World Cup.

Transcript

[A graph is shown, with 1 axis having the numbers 1, 2, & 3 going up it, and the other having 24 unlabelled marks. There are 6 points on the graph itself, with them being labelled 2006 (.33), 2010 (0), 2014 (.57), 2018 (.25), 2022 (1), and 2026 (3), the latter having '(so far)' under it. There is a grey dotted curve going up exponentially.]

[Title of graph]:

Lionel Messi
World Cup goals per game

[Caption below text]: At this rate, by 2040 Lionel Messi will be scoring hundreds of goals per game.

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